Something doesn’t add up. Throughout 2024, the consensus painted China as heading toward a Japanese-style deflationary spiral, uninvestable and trapped. Then 2025 happened.
Aaron Zhou, CIO of a US dollar family office and China-born global investor, noticed something strange in 2025. While everyone expected China’s interest rates to crash toward zero like Japan’s, they stabilized instead. While solar and EV companies were supposed to bleed out from price wars, their stock prices surged 27% and 57%. And while US chip sanctions were meant to cripple Chinese tech, domestic semiconductor startups saw their IPOs pump 400% on day one.
What changed? Did China avoid the Japanese deflation trap, or is this just a temporary relief rally? Why are investors suddenly pouring money back into the same sectors they abandoned six months ago? And what does a 10-year treasury yield hovering at 1.8% actually tell us about systemic risk?
The disconnect between narrative and price has never been wider. This episode decodes what the bond market, equity rotations, and sector performance are actually signaling about China’s economic path forward.
Hosts
Aaron Zhou, investor, co-host, co-editor of Baiguan.news
Disclaimer: The information in this episode is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or financial advice. All commentary reflects the personal views of the guests, based on publicly available information and first-hand operational experience.
